If you’ve been scrolling national headlines, you’ve probably seen some version of “the housing market is broken.” The reality on the ground – nationally and here in Denver – is a lot more boring… in a good way.
We’re closing out 2025 in what I’d call a “real” real estate market: slower than the frenzy years, still competitive in the right pockets, and full of opportunity if you know how to read the data.
Big-picture national snapshot
Nationally, prices have stayed surprisingly resilient. Existing-home sales across the U.S. are running at an annual pace of about 4.1 million, with a median sales price around $415,000, up a little over 2% year-over-year. Inventory sits at roughly 4.4 months of supply, which is basically textbook “balanced market” territory.
On the financing side, the 30-year fixed rate has drifted down from the 7s and is now hovering in the low 6s, the lowest we’ve seen in over a year. Still higher than 2021, yes – but actually close to the long-term historical average.
Sources (national): National Association of Realtors, November 2025 Existing Home Sales data; Freddie Mac / Mortgage News Daily rate surveys.
So at the national level, we’re not seeing a crash. We’re seeing a market that’s recalibrating: modest price growth, more normal timelines and a little more breathing room for buyers.
Zooming into Denver: seasonal slowdown, not a slide
Here at home, Denver is following that same “back to normal” script with a very local flavor.
According to DMAR’s November data, we saw a sharp seasonal pullback in new listings – down about 40% from October – and month-end active inventory down around 15%. That pattern almost perfectly mirrors what we saw last year at the same time, which tells us this is holiday seasonality, not a structural problem.
Prices also took a small, very normal dip heading into winter: median prices for attached and detached homes slipped a couple of percent month-over-month, while year-to-date changes are basically flat for detached homes and only modestly down for condos and townhomes.
Step back even further and the context gets really important:
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From March 2020 to November 2025, Denver’s median price is still up roughly 31–32% total, which averages out to about 6%+ per year. That’s much closer to healthy, long-term appreciation after the wild spike of 2020–2022.
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Across the Denver metro, the median price sits in the high-$500s, with about four months of inventory and longer days on market – giving buyers more leverage in negotiations than we’ve seen in years.
In other words: buyers feel like it’s slow, sellers feel like it’s tough – but the data says we’re in a balanced, functional market. This is what “normal” looks like.
Sources (Denver): DMAR Market Trends Report – November 2025 data; REcolorado / Denver metro MLS trends.
What this means if you want to buy in 2026
This is a very different landscape than the five-offers-by-Monday era:
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More breathing room. Homes are sitting longer, which means you can actually think, compare and negotiate instead of writing an offer from your car.
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Real negotiation power. In many segments, buyers are securing seller credits, rate buydowns and inspection repairs again – things that basically didn’t exist a few years ago.
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Rates you can work with. Are mid-6% rates “cheap”? No. Are they workable when you combine smart lending strategies (2/1 buydowns, permanent buydowns, closing cost credits) with today’s calmer pricing? Absolutely. And if rates soften again in 2026, you refinance – you don’t have to love your first rate forever.
If you’ve been waiting for the chaos to calm down, this “boring” market might actually be your moment.
What this means if you’re thinking about selling
Sellers have to play a more strategic game now – and that’s not a bad thing:
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Pricing with 2025 data, not 2021 memories. The homes that are moving are the ones priced with the current comps and market tempo, not against them.
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Presentation matters more than ever. With buyers being choosier, the gap between “okay photos” and “this feels like a lifestyle I want” is huge. Staging, small updates and thoughtful marketing are what get showings – and offers.
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Timing can be a tool. Many sellers are quietly pulling listings now and relaunching in early 2026. That doesn’t mean you shouldn’t list in winter – motivated buyers are absolutely still out there – but it does mean we can be intentional about when and how you hit the market.
The big takeaway: “normal” doesn’t mean “bad.” It means realistic timelines, room to negotiate, and space for good strategy to actually matter again.
If you’re staring down a 2026 move – buying, selling, or both – and you’re not sure where to start, reply to this email. I’m happy to run the numbers for your specific situation, walk you through what this market really looks like for you, and build a game plan that feels calm, clear and doable.
